Understanding the Modern Game
Possession and total shots are no longer enough to understand a match. Modern analysis looks at metrics that measure the quality of the chances a team creates.
Key Metrics Explained
- Expected Goals (xG): The probability that a specific shot results in a goal, based on historical data from similar shots.
- PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action): A measure of a team's pressing intensity high up the pitch.
- Field Tilt: Similar to possession, but only counting passes in the final third, giving a better picture of sustained attacking pressure.
Why Shots on Target Can Lie
A shot from 40 yards straight at the keeper is a "shot on target", but might carry an xG of about 0.01, a 1% chance of scoring. A missed tap-in from three yards is "off target" yet represents a huge missed opportunity. Raw shot counts hide that difference.