The Reality of Playing at Home
Home advantage is one of the most thoroughly documented effects in sports analytics. Historically across major European leagues, home teams have won roughly 45% of matches and away teams about 29%, with draws making up the rest.
What Causes It?
Research points to several factors, including crowd influence on refereeing decisions, familiarity with the surroundings, and travel. How much each one matters is still debated.
How Our Model Handles It
Home advantage is not the same for every team or league. Rather than applying one fixed bonus, our model compares the home team's record at home with the away team's record away, so each side's own home or away strength shows up directly in its numbers.