Arsenal vs Real Madrid prediction

Arsenal

Wed 9 Dec, 20:00 UTC Emirates Stadium, London

Real Madrid

64%

Model pickRecommended Pick

Arsenal win

The model favours Arsenal win at 64%. It clears every threshold, so it is a Recommended Pick.

Win probabilities

Arsenal64%

Draw23%

Real Madrid14%

Likely score1-0

Expected goals1.9 – 0.78

Both score47%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Match analysis

The model forecasts an Arsenal win, supported by their recent head-to-head dominance over Real Madrid and their strong defensive record this season. While Real Madrid boasts a perfect league record and high scoring rate, their higher goals conceded average aligns with the model's expected goals favoring Arsenal.

Arsenal

Arsenal is in strong form, remaining undefeated in their four matches with three wins and one draw. They boast a solid defense, conceding less than a goal per game, and have consistently found the net.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid enters this match with perfect form, winning all four of their games so far this season. They have a prolific attack, averaging 3.3 goals per match, but have conceded nearly two goals per game.

Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.

Head to head

2025-04-16Real Madrid1–2Arsenal
2025-04-08Arsenal3–0Real Madrid
2019-07-24Real Madrid2–2Arsenal

Form & table

Real Madrid2nd, 12 ptsWWWW

Arsenal3rd, 10 ptsWDWW

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	20	5	+15	12	WWWW
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	13	7	+6	12	WWWW
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	8	3	+5	10	WDWW
4	Como	4	3	0	1	19	6	+13	9	WWLW
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	14	6	+8	9	WLWW
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	12	6	+6	9	LWWW
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	12	7	+5	9	WWLW
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	14	10	+4	9	LWWW
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	11	7	+4	9	WWWL
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	8	4	+4	9	WLWW
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	8	6	+2	9	LWWW
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	7	5	+2	9	WWLW
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	12	5	+7	8	WDDW
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	7	4	+3	7	LDWW
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	8	6	+2	6	WWLL
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	10	9	+1	6	WWLL
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	8	8	0	6	WLLW
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	8	9	-1	6	WWLL
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	6	11	-5	5	WDLD
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	10	8	+2	4	LWLD
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	4	4	0	4	LLWD
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	9	10	-1	4	WLDL
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	4	5	-1	4	LDWL
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	3	4	-1	4	LWLD
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	4	9	-5	4	DLWL
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	6	7	-1	3	WLLL
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	6	11	-5	3	LWLL
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	8	14	-6	3	LLWL
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	5	11	-6	3	LLLW
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	5	11	-6	3	LLWL
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	4	10	-6	3	LLWL
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	4	11	-7	3	LLWL
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	4	16	-12	3	LLLW
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	5	9	-4	1	LDLL
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	4	10	-6	1	DLLL
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	1	17	-16	0	LLLL

Qualification / promotion Play-off / secondary Relegation

Why this call

Confidenceneeds 58%+
64%
Lead over next resultneeds 12%+
41%
Draw riskmax 30%
23%
Model edgeneeds 0.52+
0.52

A Recommended Pick must pass all four. This match is Recommended Pick. Goals estimate: Team strength model.

Pick timeline

Prediction madeMon 9 Nov, 00:45 UTC
Locks 12 hours before kickoffCan still be refreshed until then
KickoffWed 9 Dec, 20:00 UTC
Graded automaticallyFrom the confirmed final score

Model dc-ratings-v2 · strategy_v1.4