Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain prediction

Aston Villa

Tue 8 Dec, 20:00 UTC Villa Park, Birmingham

Paris Saint Germain

41%

Model pickNo Pick

Aston Villa win

The model favours Aston Villa win at 41%. The numbers are too close to call with conviction, so the model makes No Pick.

Win probabilities

Aston Villa41%

Draw25%

Paris Saint Germain34%

Likely score2-1

Expected goals1.67 – 1.56

Both score65%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Match analysis

The model forecasts an Aston Villa win, supported by their slightly higher expected goals at 1.67 compared to PSG's 1.56 and a recent head-to-head home victory. This forecast is complicated by Paris Saint Germain's perfect league form and superior goal-scoring record this season, as well as their better overall head-to-head record.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa has won three of their four league matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals per game. They have conceded 1.5 goals per match and kept one clean sheet.

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain is in excellent form, winning all four of their league games and scoring an impressive average of 5.0 goals per match. They have conceded 1.3 goals per game and secured one clean sheet.

Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.

Head to head

2026-08-12Paris Saint Germain2–1Aston Villa
2025-04-15Aston Villa3–2Paris Saint Germain
2025-04-09Paris Saint Germain3–1Aston Villa

Form & table

Paris Saint Germain1st, 12 ptsWWWW

Aston Villa6th, 9 ptsLWWW

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	20	5	+15	12	WWWW
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	13	7	+6	12	WWWW
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	8	3	+5	10	WDWW
4	Como	4	3	0	1	19	6	+13	9	WWLW
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	14	6	+8	9	WLWW
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	12	6	+6	9	LWWW
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	12	7	+5	9	WWLW
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	14	10	+4	9	LWWW
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	11	7	+4	9	WWWL
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	8	4	+4	9	WLWW
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	8	6	+2	9	LWWW
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	7	5	+2	9	WWLW
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	12	5	+7	8	WDDW
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	7	4	+3	7	LDWW
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	8	6	+2	6	WWLL
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	10	9	+1	6	WWLL
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	8	8	0	6	WLLW
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	8	9	-1	6	WWLL
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	6	11	-5	5	WDLD
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	10	8	+2	4	LWLD
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	4	4	0	4	LLWD
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	9	10	-1	4	WLDL
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	4	5	-1	4	LDWL
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	3	4	-1	4	LWLD
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	4	9	-5	4	DLWL
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	6	7	-1	3	WLLL
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	6	11	-5	3	LWLL
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	8	14	-6	3	LLWL
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	5	11	-6	3	LLLW
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	5	11	-6	3	LLWL
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	4	10	-6	3	LLWL
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	4	11	-7	3	LLWL
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	4	16	-12	3	LLLW
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	5	9	-4	1	LDLL
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	4	10	-6	1	DLLL
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	1	17	-16	0	LLLL

Qualification / promotion Play-off / secondary Relegation

Why this call

Confidenceneeds 58%+
41%
Lead over next resultneeds 12%+
7%
Draw riskmax 30%
25%
Model edgeneeds 0.52+
0.24

A Recommended Pick must pass all four. This match is No Pick. Goals estimate: Team strength model.

Pick timeline

Prediction madeSun 8 Nov, 00:38 UTC
Locks 12 hours before kickoffCan still be refreshed until then
KickoffTue 8 Dec, 20:00 UTC
Graded automaticallyFrom the confirmed final score

Model dc-ratings-v2 · strategy_v1.4