Bournemouth vs Brighton prediction
Bournemouth
BrightonThe model favours Bournemouth win at 38%. The numbers are too close to call with conviction, so the model makes No Pick.
Win probabilities
Match analysis
The model forecasts a Bournemouth win, supported by their narrow expected goals advantage and a previous home victory against Brighton in 2025. However, Brighton's significantly stronger league position, superior season form, and impressive goal difference complicate this prediction.
BournemouthBournemouth's recent form is poor, with three losses and three draws in their last six matches, following an earlier three-game winning streak. They have a balanced record of goals scored and conceded this season.
BrightonBrighton is in strong form, winning six of their nine matches, including four of their last five, and sits high in the league. They boast a potent attack averaging 2.7 goals per match and a solid defense with six clean sheets.
Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.
Head to head
- 2026-01-19Brighton1–1Bournemouth
- 2025-09-13Bournemouth2–1Brighton
- 2025-02-25Brighton2–1Bournemouth
- 2024-11-23Bournemouth1–2Brighton
- 2024-04-28Bournemouth3–0Brighton
Form & table
Brighton3rd, 19 ptsWLWWWBournemouth9th, 12 ptsWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Manchester City |
10 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton |
9 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea |
9 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton |
10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool |
9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford |
9 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds |
10 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Bournemouth |
9 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham |
10 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Newcastle |
10 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa |
9 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City |
10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich |
9 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham |
10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest |
10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry |
10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United |
9 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace |
9 | -12 | 7 |
| 20 |  Sunderland |
9 | -10 | 5 |