PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid prediction

PSV Eindhoven

Wed 9 Dec, 20:00 UTC Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

Atletico Madrid

54%

Model pickWatch Only

PSV Eindhoven win

The model favours PSV Eindhoven win at 54%. There is a signal, but it falls short of a recommendation, so it is Watch Only.

Win probabilities

PSV Eindhoven54%

Draw22%

Atletico Madrid24%

Likely score2-1

Expected goals2.18 – 1.47

Both score69%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Match analysis

The model forecasts a PSV win with higher expected goals, despite both teams having identical league points and similar recent form. However, Atletico Madrid has a strong historical head-to-head record against PSV, including a recent win at this venue, which complicates this forecast.

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven's recent form is DLWL, with one win, one draw, and two losses in four matches. They have scored an average of 0.8 goals per match while conceding 1.0.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid also shows an inconsistent form of LWDL, securing one win, one draw, and two losses from four games. They have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.3 goals conceded per match.

Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.

Head to head

2025-12-09PSV Eindhoven2–3Atletico Madrid
2016-11-23Atletico Madrid2–0PSV Eindhoven
2016-09-13PSV Eindhoven0–1Atletico Madrid
2016-03-15Atletico Madrid0–0PSV Eindhoven
2016-02-24PSV Eindhoven0–0Atletico Madrid

Form & table

Atletico Madrid23rd, 4 ptsLDWL

PSV Eindhoven24th, 4 ptsLWLD

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	20	5	+15	12	WWWW
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	13	7	+6	12	WWWW
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	8	3	+5	10	WDWW
4	Como	4	3	0	1	19	6	+13	9	WWLW
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	14	6	+8	9	WLWW
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	12	6	+6	9	LWWW
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	12	7	+5	9	WWLW
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	14	10	+4	9	LWWW
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	11	7	+4	9	WWWL
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	8	4	+4	9	WLWW
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	8	6	+2	9	LWWW
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	7	5	+2	9	WWLW
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	12	5	+7	8	WDDW
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	7	4	+3	7	LDWW
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	8	6	+2	6	WWLL
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	10	9	+1	6	WWLL
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	8	8	0	6	WLLW
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	8	9	-1	6	WWLL
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	6	11	-5	5	WDLD
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	10	8	+2	4	LWLD
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	4	4	0	4	LLWD
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	9	10	-1	4	WLDL
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	4	5	-1	4	LDWL
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	3	4	-1	4	LWLD
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	4	9	-5	4	DLWL
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	6	7	-1	3	WLLL
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	6	11	-5	3	LWLL
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	8	14	-6	3	LLWL
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	5	11	-6	3	LLLW
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	5	11	-6	3	LLWL
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	4	10	-6	3	LLWL
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	4	11	-7	3	LLWL
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	4	16	-12	3	LLLW
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	5	9	-4	1	LDLL
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	4	10	-6	1	DLLL
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	1	17	-16	0	LLLL

Qualification / promotion Play-off / secondary Relegation

Why this call

Confidenceneeds 58%+
54%
Lead over next resultneeds 12%+
30%
Draw riskmax 30%
22%
Model edgeneeds 0.52+
0.42

A Recommended Pick must pass all four. This match is Watch Only. Goals estimate: Team strength model.

Pick timeline

Prediction madeMon 9 Nov, 00:47 UTC
Locks 12 hours before kickoffCan still be refreshed until then
KickoffWed 9 Dec, 20:00 UTC
Graded automaticallyFrom the confirmed final score

Model dc-ratings-v2 · strategy_v1.4