Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction

Luxembourg
vs
Estonia
43%
Model pickNo Pick
Luxembourg win

The model favours Luxembourg win at 43%. The numbers are too close to call with conviction, so the model makes No Pick.

Win probabilities

Luxembourg43%
Draw32%
Estonia26%
Likely score1-0
Expected goals0.89 – 0.69
Both score30%
Over 2.5 goals21%

Includes the betting market's view from 10 bookmakers (45% / 30% / 25%). How this works

Match analysis

The model forecasts a Luxembourg win, which is complicated by their poor season form and previous head-to-head loss to Estonia, who are undefeated and have a strong defensive record. However, the expected goals slightly favor Luxembourg, suggesting a narrow victory.

Luxembourg

Luxembourg's season form is poor, with one win and three losses in four matches. They average 0.5 goals scored per match and have failed to score in three games.

Estonia

Estonia is undefeated this season with one win and three draws from four matches. They have a strong defense, conceding only one goal and keeping three clean sheets.

Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.

Head to head

  • 2026-10-03Estonia1–0Luxembourg

Form & table

Estonia2nd, 6 ptsDWDD
Luxembourg4th, 3 ptsLLLW
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Iceland 4220 71 +68 DWWD
2 Estonia 4130 21 +16 DWDD
3 Bulgaria 4112 35 -24 WLDL
4 Luxembourg 4103 27 -53 LLLW
Qualification / promotion Play-off / secondary Relegation