Manchester City vs Chelsea prediction
Manchester City
ChelseaThe model favours Manchester City win at 60%. There is a signal, but it falls short of a recommendation, so it is Watch Only.
Win probabilities
Match analysis
The forecast for a Manchester City win is strongly supported by their superior league standing, better season record, and dominant head-to-head history against Chelsea. Manchester City also boasts a higher average goals scored and lower goals conceded per match this season. Chelsea's inconsistent form and lower expected goals complicate their chances in this fixture.
Manchester CityManchester City has a strong season record with 7 wins from 10 matches, averaging 2.1 goals scored per game. Their recent form shows a pattern of strong wins followed by three consecutive losses.
ChelseaChelsea's form has been inconsistent this season, with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses from 10 matches. They have struggled to score in three games while conceding 1.6 goals per match on average.
Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.
Head to head
- 2026-05-16Chelsea0–1Manchester City
- 2026-04-12Chelsea0–3Manchester City
- 2026-01-04Manchester City1–1Chelsea
- 2025-01-25Manchester City3–1Chelsea
- 2024-08-18Chelsea0–2Manchester City
Form & table
Manchester City3rd, 21 ptsLLLWWChelsea5th, 16 ptsLWLWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal |
10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Brighton |
10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 | Manchester City |
10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 |  Liverpool |
10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea |
10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Everton |
10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 |  Bournemouth |
10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |  Brentford |
10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 |  Leeds |
10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa |
10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Tottenham |
10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Newcastle |
10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City |
10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich |
10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham |
10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest |
10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry |
10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United |
10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 |  Sunderland |
10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 |  Crystal Palace |
10 | -14 | 7 |