Poland vs Sweden prediction
Poland
SwedenThe model favours Poland win at 39%. The numbers are too close to call with conviction, so the model makes No Pick.
Win probabilities
Match analysis
The model forecasts a Poland win despite Sweden's superior league standing, undefeated season record, and dominant head-to-head history. Poland's slightly lower expected goals also complicate the prediction for a home victory. The data available is sufficient for this analysis.
PolandPoland's recent form is inconsistent, with one win, one draw, and two losses in their last four matches. They have scored an average of 1.8 goals per match while conceding 1.0.
SwedenSweden is in strong form, having won three and drawn one of their last four matches. They are undefeated this season, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 0.8 per game.
Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.
Head to head
- 2026-09-28Sweden3–1Poland
- 2026-03-31Sweden3–2Poland
- 2022-03-29Poland2–0Sweden
- 2021-06-23Sweden3–2Poland
Form & table
Sweden1st, 10 ptsWDWWPoland3rd, 4 ptsLWLD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden |
4 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 |  Bosnia & Herzegovina |
4 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland |
4 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Romania |
4 | -10 | 0 |