Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

Villarreal
vs
Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano
54%
Model pickWatch Only
Villarreal win

The model favours Villarreal win at 54%. There is a signal, but it falls short of a recommendation, so it is Watch Only.

Win probabilities

Villarreal54%
Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano21%
Likely score2-1
Expected goals1.79 – 1.09
Both score56%
Over 2.5 goals55%

Match analysis

The forecast for a Villarreal win is supported by their superior league standing, better goal difference, and a strong head-to-head record against Rayo Vallecano, particularly at home. Rayo Vallecano's higher average of goals conceded also complicates their chances. The expected goals further indicate Villarreal's offensive advantage.

Villarreal

Villarreal's recent form is mixed, with an equal number of wins and losses over 12 matches. They score an average of 1.4 goals per match but have failed to score in a third of their games.

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano's form has been inconsistent, with three wins, three draws, and five losses in 11 matches. They concede a high average of 1.9 goals per match, which is a significant weakness.

Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.

Head to head

  • 2026-05-17Rayo Vallecano2–0Villarreal
  • 2025-11-01Villarreal4–0Rayo Vallecano
  • 2025-02-22Rayo Vallecano0–1Villarreal
  • 2024-12-18Villarreal1–1Rayo Vallecano
  • 2024-04-28Villarreal3–0Rayo Vallecano

Form & table

Villarreal8th, 15 ptsWLWDL
Rayo Vallecano14th, 12 ptsLWLDD
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Barcelona 121101 4813 +3533 WWLWW
2 Real Madrid 121002 3110 +2130 WWWWW
3 Atletico Madrid 12912 2310 +1328 LWWWW
4 Real Betis 12822 2015 +526 WWDLW
5 Real Sociedad 12714 2120 +122 WLWWW
6 Sevilla 12534 1719 -218 DLWLD
7 Athletic Club 11443 1511 +416 DWWLD
8 Villarreal 12435 1715 +215 WLWDL
9 Deportivo La Coruna 12363 1514 +115 DWLDL
10 Racing Santander 12426 1730 -1314 WLWLD
11 Celta Vigo 12273 1010 013 DLDWD
12 Alaves 12345 1517 -213 DLDLL
13 Espanyol 12336 1314 -112 DWLLD
14 Rayo Vallecano 11335 1521 -612 LWLDD
15 Getafe 12336 818 -1012 LWLDL
16 Osasuna 12336 1223 -1112 DLLWL
17 Levante 12255 1621 -511 DLLWD
18 Elche 12246 1420 -610 LLWDD
19 Valencia 12237 820 -129 LWLDD
20 Malaga 12057 923 -145 LLDLD
Qualification / promotion Play-off / secondary Relegation