FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg prediction
FSV Mainz 05
SC FreiburgThe model favours FSV Mainz 05 win at 40%. The numbers are too close to call with conviction, so the model makes No Pick.
Win probabilities
Match analysis
The model forecasts a home win for FSV Mainz 05, supported by their slight edge in expected goals and home advantage. This prediction is complicated by SC Freiburg's significantly stronger league standing, superior season form, and a dominant head-to-head record where they have not lost to Mainz in the last five encounters.
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05 shows inconsistent form with more losses than wins, having conceded more goals than they scored on average this season. They have managed to score 2.0 goals per match but their defense has been leaky.
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg is in strong form, winning six of their nine matches and demonstrating a robust defense with only 1.1 goals conceded per game. They have a potent attack, averaging 2.2 goals per match and never failing to score.
Written by AI from the data on this page. The probabilities come from the statistical model, not the AI.
Head to head
- 2026-04-12FSV Mainz 050–1SC Freiburg
- 2025-11-30SC Freiburg4–0FSV Mainz 05
- 2025-03-15FSV Mainz 052–2SC Freiburg
- 2024-11-03SC Freiburg0–0FSV Mainz 05
- 2024-04-21SC Freiburg1–1FSV Mainz 05
Form & table
SC Freiburg3rd, 19 ptsWWLLWFSV Mainz 0512th, 10 ptsLLLWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München |
9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund |
9 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg |
9 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig |
9 | +14 | 18 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen |
9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen |
9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg |
9 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 |  VfB Stuttgart |
9 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |  1899 Hoffenheim |
9 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt |
9 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV |
9 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 |
9 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 |
9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  FC Augsburg |
9 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 |  1. FC Köln |
9 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin |
9 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 |
9 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach |
9 | -13 | 4 |